INDO-US CIVIL UCLEAR DEAL AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR NP REGIME

Indo-US Civil Nuclear Deal and its implications for NP regime



Table of contents

Chapter 1: Introduction4

The Nuclear Deal5

Is It About Energy?7

Chapter 2: Literature Review11

Separation of Civilian/ Military Facilities11

Type of Safeguards14

Nuclear Suppliers Group16

Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty (FMCT)17

Chapter 3: Methodology21

Implications on South Asian Security Environment21

Regional Instability21

Regional Realignments26

Chapter 4: Discussion31

Pakistan's Likely Response31

China Factor33

Way Forward36

Regional Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty36

Regional N on- Proliferation Regime (RNR)38

New Stepts in Strategic partnership (NSSP)40

NSSP - Space42

NSSP - Nuclear Energy44

123 Agreement45

Rationale behind the agreement49

Nuclear non-proliferation49

Economic considerations50

Strategic51

Agreement52

Hyde Act Passage in the U.S53

Political opposition in India54

IAEA approval55

NSG waiver55

Versions of U.S. draft exemption56

Initial support and opposition57

Reactions following the waiver58

Confusion over China's stance60

Indian reactions61

Other reactions over the issue63

Indian facilities64

Implication on global non proliferation regime66

Chapter 5: Conclusion74

References75

Chapter 1: Introduction

The Joint Statement of 18 July 2005 provided a roadmap for future strategic partnership between India and the United States. The new cooperative framework aimed at making India a global power has many facets including strategic, energy and economic components. However, the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement which is part of the overall energy dialogue attracted most attention due to its serious implications for global non-proliferation regime and on the South Asian security environment. The agreement would enable India to acquire civil nuclear technology from the US and other members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), and accord India, de facto status of a Nuclear Weapon State (NWS).

The nuclear deal, if remain unchecked, could allow India to make qualitative and quantitative improvement in its nuclear arsenal, triggering a possible nuclear arms competition in the region, involving Pakistan, India and possibly China, thus destabilizing the entire region. Similarly, the overall India-US strategic partnership at the possible cost of regional instability could impinge security interests of other regional players; forcing smaller countries to re-evaluate their security imperatives and explore options such as strategic realignments, in order to better safeguard their security interests.

The emerging India-US relationship aimed at enhancing India's stature in the region, besides having possible negative implications for the South Asian stability does provide US with an opportunity to use its increased leverage with India, and work towards regional stability by helping to resolve outstanding disputes between India and Pakistan. The US could also work with these two non-NPT (Non Proliferation Treaty) NWS to bring them into mainstream non-proliferation regime through some kind of a regional arrangement, and under a treaty obligation, which could alleviate proliferation concerns of the international community, arising mainly due to non-NPT status of India and Pakistan. Such an option would bring the two non-NPT NWS under a treaty obligation, which could then become a basis for civil nuclear cooperation with other members of the NSG.

The Nuclear Deal

In the Joint Statement of July 2005, President Bush stated that as a responsible state with advanced nuclear technology, India should acquire same benefits and advantages as other such states. He also said that the US would work to achieve full civil nuclear energy cooperation with India as it realizes its goals of promoting ...