PANDEMIC AND EPIDEMIC

Pandemic and epidemic

Pandemic and epidemic

Introduction

Infectious diseases of both a global and regional nature are becoming more prevalent. Asia is at serious risk. The past two decades have seen more than 30 re-emerging diseases and unexpected outbreaks of new infectious diseases. Global pandemics have included HIV/AIDS, diphtheria, malaria, measles, poliomyelitis, and H1-N1 (swine flu); regional epidemics have included Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and H5-N1 (avian flu). Those diseases accounted for about 15 percent of the 37 million deaths worldwide in 2009, and more than a third of the diseases were in the Asia-Pacific region. (See Table 1)

The global pandemics that have killed the most people in the human history are the bubonic plague, cholera, and influenza. The pandemics that have most affected Asia are influenza and SARS. In the past century, two influenza pandemics began in Asia and spread globally. The Asian flu pandemic of 1957-58 began in southern China, infecting up to four million people worldwide and killing almost two million. A decade later, the Hong Kong flu infected an estimated one to three million people worldwide and killed half a million. In the latest decade, cases of avian flu affecting humans were reported in Asia, with 440 people in 15 countries infected, resulting in 262 human deaths. Although avian flu virus has not been reported as transferred human-to-human, the risk of a more extensive outbreak remains significant. In 2003, about 8,000 cases of SARS were reported, resulting in 800 deaths, mainly in East Asia. Asia is currently going through a series of major transitions including globalization, urbanization, and climate change, which will present future challenges for disease control. By 2020, 400 million business travelers and tourists are expected in the Asia-Pacific region annually, compared to 100 million in 2000. The increase of close contact between people in confined spaces could promote disease transmission. By 2050, Asia's urban population will increase by 20-25 percent, which means that 1.5 billion people will live in urban areas.

This rapid urbanization, which has led to over-crowding in big cities such as Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo, Mumbai, and Jakarta, could increase the risk of infectious disease transmission. In addition, climate change could also spread infectious diseases, as rising global temperatures affect global ecosystems and lead to more tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue fever expanding into temperate regions. Since the 1970s, climate change has contributed to 150,000 more deaths every year from pandemic disease, according to the Australian think tank the Lowy Institute, with over half of the deaths in Asia.

Key features of this issue

Pandemics and epidemics in Asia have caused massive losses in terms of human lives and business continuity. Businesses suffer in terms of employee well-being and productivity, customer base, and business partnerships. According to a conservative estimate based on experiences with past pandemics, if a global influenza pandemic breaks out, about 25 percent of the world's population (1.5 billion people) would fall ill; worker absenteeism would reach as high as 35 percent or ...