Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning

Introduction

The human species evolves within an environment, which is always unstable, but now seems more unstable than ever. We now know that there is no absolute truth, no complete theory, unified, allowing us to predict things to come, or the universe or in everyday life. The phenomena of nature have a lot of accidents, ultimately quantum. The world is partially ordered but partially disordered. It is about understanding both. Neither biological evolution nor cultures are predictable. Not everything that happens in the world is reducible to principles. Thus we can not only produce an accurate picture of future. But we can help stakeholder groups through some tools to make strategic decisions about their future, to collaborate and direct their action. In this part of the paper we are going to evaluate scenario planning as the most accurate tool to predict future and we are also going to discuss the how can an organization that employs traditional systems development methods use scenario planning to improve systems.

In past traditional system development methods were used to promote and improve the control and management of the simplifying and structuring the process, software development process, and standardizing the developmental techniques, process, and activities. It was also assumed that these system development methods improve the quality and productivity of the organization. However there is little literature available to support this assumption, it also questions the efficiency of traditional system development methods (Godet, 2000). Research has shown that in past many organizations used formal system development methods but in most of the organizations there were no proper guidelines and procedures, and where there were, they were not always followed. In short the research indicated that these traditional system development methods are not enough efficient in today's modern world. Thus they are being replaced by Scenario planning.

Scenario planning is a learning method and strategic tool of the future, based on the identification of important factors and uncertain and understanding of the nature and impact of these factors on the future performance of a company (Schwartz, 2011). This is a group effort that understanding the important factors to consider in planning emerges. The objective of scenario is to design a small number of stories (scenarios) by combining contrasting or differing possible changes or uncertain factors strongly influence performance. Organizations are using scenario planning to improve systems instead of employing traditional systems development methods since scenario planning is a technique for decision-making under uncertainty. In organization with the help of scenario planning scenarios are used to analyze the impact of uncertain events, in conjunction with the often related technical analysis of competitive, market clearing analysis, and risk profile Underlying value analysis, portfolio and risk-return analysis. Scenario planning is also extremely popular with military planners. Scenario planning is highly interactive and imaginative exercise, the process is iterative and systematic one (Schoemaker, 2005).

Scenario Planning Process

Orient

This is the first phase of the process of scenario planning used in organizations whose aim is to clarify the problem at stake ...