Climatic Changes and Models

Climatic Changes and Models

Thesis Statement

The Climate Models are substantial in predicting and forecasting the climatic changes for the next 100 years. It is imperative to narrow down the variations in the outputs of the different models and incorporate socio-political, economic, and environmental impact of climatic changes.

Introduction

This paper gives an overview of research efforts undertaken in the last two decades in the field of numerical modelling of climate change. This work also touches on the characteristics of global models reproducing circulation climate dynamics and focuses on simulating future developments based on forcings induced by human activities (change in the composition of the atmosphere emission CO 2 , Etc.)1. These forcings are known as future emission scenarios and represent the main source of uncertainty for change modeling climate, hence, is usually considered a set of scenarios that try to cover the spectrum of possible futures, more or less optimistic, for any study of climate change. This uncertainty makes it necessary to address the problem of climate change from a probabilistic point of view, using new techniques based on the ensemble forecast for quantifying uncertainty2.

Discussion

Predictions of the effects that humans have on climate have continued over the years. In 1957 oceanographer Roger Revelle predicted that the atmosphere would experience changes as the result of carbon dioxide build up. In 1980 climatologist Suki Manabe predicted the effects of global warming on the earth's poles. The various predictions on the effects on the earth's climate change are all a result of human impact3.

Global Climate Change

Currently, global climate change is one of the major concerns of humanity given the enormous repercussions for sustainable future development. In recent decades huge technological efforts have been conducted and investigators try to explain the possible causes of this phenomenon and try to predict their tendency future. This constant climate change began a few decades from various comments that indicated not only a global warming during the last century, but also an increase in conditions that result in extreme drought, heat waves, floods, etc. with the consequent impact on human health. Recently evidence has been found that this change is influencing the dynamics of the climate system itself, with deceleration of certain ocean currents4. From these facts, the community science has made ??great efforts to develop models to simulate the climate system and which are able to reproduce the observed change to finally determine factors contributing to it. These models have been of revealed the anthropogenic change due mainly to the increase in greenhouse gas greenhouse effect and also have provided the first estimates of the future trend of these changes. However, the limitations of the various models and the diverse nature make it difficult to correctly project climatic changes.

Projections for global climate change between now and the end of the 21st century

Models predict that climate sensitivity is probably between 1.5 and 4.5 ° C. Climate sensitivity is defined as the process of change global surface temperature to a doubling of CO 2 ...