Internet Field Trip

Internet Field Trip

Forecasting Methods

Environmental Scanning

Environmental scanning refers to the process of scanning the media to identify emerging issues to enable organizations or individuals to anticipate and respond to changes in the external environment. Scanning is meant to provide strategic intelligence to the strategic planning process by identifying changing trends and potential developments, monitoring them, forecasting their future pattern and assessing their impacts. The objective of scanning is to look over the widest range of possible factors and to identify connections with the organization's function or business, and especially to identify the significant positive or negative effects those could have on the organization and its activities. Scanning may be active or passive. Passive scanning is what most people do when they read journals or newspapers. (Methods and Approaches of Futures Studies)

Judgmental Method

Judgmental Forecasting is the most common method of actual Forecasting. Especially when the decision to be undertaken is critical and exact data required is unavailable or unreliable. Such methods are particularly useful when historical data is scarce. This method is used when the forecaster views himself as an expert in the area. Judgmental Forecasting may be based on theory and/or actual analysis of data, but, no formal decision rule exists to lead to ultimate forecast. It is sometimes argued that subjective analysis is useful in times of structural change as statistical methods are too slow to pick up the change .These methods rely on expertise and intuition, rather than on statistical analysis of historical data. (Garrett & Leatherman)

Genius Forecasting

This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck. Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new technologies with uncanny accuracy. There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting is that it's impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass. Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply too difficult to accept. (Glenn, 1994)

Consensus Methods

A variation of the judgmental approach is consensus forecasting. Here, experts familiar with factors affecting a particular type of revenue meet to discuss near-term conditions in order to reach agreement about what is likely to happen ...