Siberian Express

Siberian Express

Introduction

Siberian Express is a meteorological term of shorthand that is used in United Stated for the description of the arrival of cold breeze in mass of Arctic regions. This term is not referred to the region of Serbia only. This term is in general used by news and media in order to report the arrival of such frigid air breeze in to the region where it is not usually present, for example, eastern seaboard of United States, Deep or southern Seaboard of America. Meteorologically, this term is usually linked with the phenomenon of PNA i.e. Pacific North American teleconnection Pattern. In this paper we will study the phenomenon of Siberian express in details along with its trends and patterns (Cheung, et al., 2012).

Discussion

The pattern of weather for the Siberian express is resulted from very cold air. The upper air pattern appears to be establishing what meteorologists term a Siberian express, winds aloft that bring cold air from Siberia across the north polar region into western Canada and then southeast into Plains and Great Lakes. This potentially two-week-long pattern will coincide with what is normally Chicago's coldest time of the year, the second and third weeks of January. During this period high temperatures may average well below the normal upper 20s (Andrew, 2011).

As the cold pattern slowly evolves, northwest winds will bring intervals of cloudiness and snow showers. The Chicago area figures to miss most of the accumulating snow, but heavier lake-effect snow showers will probably dump several inches over portions of Indiana and Lower Michigan early Friday and again Friday night into Saturday (Anderson, 2011).

The Estimates of Future Climate

The estimates of future climate changes include the uncertainties caused by the inaccuracy in the scenario for future increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere, by the quality of model computations, and by the internal variability of the climate system manifesting itself on all time scales. For example, the natural variability may add a significant uncertainty to the estimation of climate changes because the changes are computed for limited time periods. For the period of 20 to30 years widely used for the analysis of model simulations, the influence of variability on the climate trend value estimation may not be fully taken into account. In the case of stable climate and availability of the data for rather large number of years, any climate metric including the extremes could be computed with a high degree of reliability (Cheung, et al., 2012). To reveal the significant climate changes caused by the anthropogenic impact, it is necessary to minimize the influence of the internal variability. The most effective method of reducing its influence are the ensemble model simulations enabling to get more complete statistics of climate changes and to express the forecast estimates in the probabilistic form (Shkol'nik, et al., 2012).

The global climate models (GCMs) of the atmosphere in the case of the joint use with the models of the ocean and other components of the climate system include the possible ...