[The Future Environmental Impacts of the Building of Turkish Damns on the Euphrates River]

By

Abstract

This paper is part of a broader research project which seeks to apply different conceptions of security to environmental problems. The paper has two goals. First, to analyse the likelihood for interstate conflict between the states sharing the Euphrates river. Second, to analyse how problems associated with water access issues in the Euphrates basin might be viewed within the broader context of security. In a practical sense, this paper will argue that conflict between any of these states over the Euphrates River is unlikely in the short to mid-term. In a theoretical sense, it will be argued that regardless of the immediate likelihood for interstate conflict or which approach to security is applied, the issue of Euphrates water access should be conceptualized as a security issue.

Reservoirs constructed near urban areas pose a high-risk potential for downstream life and property. Turkey is one of the most seismically active regions in the world and has at least 1200 large dams with different types. Major earthquakes with the potential of threatening life and property occur frequently here. The Euphrates basin studied in this article is located in a seismically very active part of Turkey. The northern part of the basin is structurally cut by numerous faults. Many large dams are located on or close to these faults. In this paper we summarize the methods used for the analysis of seismic hazards and total risk, discuss the seismic hazards of thirty-two large dams constructed on the Euphrates basin on the basis of the seismic activity of the dam site and their total risk as based on physical properties and the position in the basin. The seismic hazard analyses have indicated that peak ground acceleration changes within a wide range (0.011 g and 0.564 g) for the dam sites of the basin. A seismic hazard map showing the equivalent PGA (peak ground acceleration) values was developed so as to use for the preliminary analysis of dam structures, which will be designed in the basin. The total risk analyses depending on the seismic hazard rating of dam site and risk rating of the structure have concluded that fifteen large dams have high-risk class in the basin. These dams must be analyzed with high priority and redesigned to increase the safety of the embankments and their appurtenant structures, if necessary.

Table of Contents

Abstractii

Chapter 1: Introduction1

Research Questions2

Chapter 2: Literature Review5

The Euphrates River Basin5

The Likelihood of Interstate Conflict in the Euphrates basin7

The Euphrates River: A Threat to Security?9

Chapter 3: Methodology14

Chapter 4: Analyses And Discussions18

Seismic Hazard Analyses18

Chapter 5: Conclusion25

Chapter 1: Introduction

Turkey, which is located at the southeast of Europe, covers an area of 77.95 million ha. Almost one-third of this area (28 million ha) can be classified as cultivable land. Recent surveys indicate that an area of about 8.5 million ha is feasibly irrigable under the available technology. However, only 2.5 million ha land has been irrigated up-to-now. In other words, only 30% of feasibly irrigable land is ...