QUANTITATIVE POLITICAL ANALYSIS

Quantitative Political Analysis

Quantitative Political Analysis

Introduction

Data are not information! To determine what statistical data analysis is, one must first define statistics. Statistics is a set of methods that are used to collect, analyze, present, and interpret data. Statistical methods are used in a wide variety of occupations and help people identify, study, and solve many complex problems. In the business and economic world, these methods enable decision makers and managers to make informed and better decisions about uncertain situations. Vast amounts of statistical information are available in today's global and economic environment because of continual improvements in computer technology. To compete successfully globally, managers and decision makers must be able to understand the information and use it effectively. Statistical data analysis provides hands on experience to promote the use of statistical thinking and techniques to apply in order to make educated decisions in the business world.

Election Data Analysis

If you've ever watched national election returns on television, when networks project the winners only minutes after the polls close, you've seen political statistical analysis in action. Analysts hired by the networks to project election winners analyze exit polls and other data using sophisticated statistical models. This is best-known example of political statistical analysis, but not the only one. Political scientists and other researchers use statistical techniques to analyze public opinion data and analyze the impact of government policies.

Election Projections

Networks use statistical models to project the winners in congressional and presidential elections. A variety of statistical models for forecasting elections exist. Political scientist Michael Lewis-Beck outlined some of these models in his 1992 book "Forecasting Elections," which instructs readers in how to use the models to conduct predictions of elections.

Famous Ties

Election projection models, such as those used by the major networks, are complex and rigorous, but not perfect, as the closely contested 2000 presidential election demonstrated. In that election, many networks prematurely projected Democrat Al Gore the winner in Florida until returns later in the evening revealed that the race was too close to call. This set off a round of recounts and lawsuits that ended with the U.S. Supreme Court declaring Republican George W. Bush the winner of the election.

Function

Political statistical analysis is not limited in its application to election forecasts. Political researchers use statistical analysis to study public opinion, explain various political phenomena, or examine the effects of government policies in areas ranging from health care and education to national defense. An example of a policy research question is the impact of government safety regulations on worker injuries at construction sites.

Features

In its use and application, political statistical analysis is no different from statistical analysis in economics, education, sociology or other academic disciplines. Analysis begins with a question, in this instance, about a particular political or public policy matter. Analysts then express the condition or phenomenon to be explained as a measurable dependent variable. The independent variables are the possible explanations or predictors of the dependent ...