FACTOR IN CRISES

Novelty as a factor in Crises

Novelty as a Factor in Crises

Crisis Management

Crisis management is competitively a new field of management. Generally, activities which are part, of crisis management are forecasting about the potential crisis which expected to come in the future, and to take precautionary measures to mitigate the ensuing risk. Crisis Management is in the face of development, currently real crisis covers to identify the absolute nature of current risk. It focuses on the public relation to recover any damage the public image, give assurance to the stakeholders that recovery is possible in case of any crisis (Gottschalk 2002, Pp: 54-75).

Hurricane Katrina

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season broke several records, including the most named tropical storms in a single year, totalling 27 (the average is 10), and the most hurricanes, 15 (the average is 5); and 7 of these were rated intense, or greater than Category 3 (the average is 2—i.e., sustained winds above 111 mi. /hr. [miles per hour], or 179 km/hr. [kilometres per hour]). The 2005 season was the only time two Category 5 storms were in the Gulf of Mexico (Katrina and Rita); and the first time three Category 3 or more hurricanes made U.S' landfall in subsequent years (2004 and 2005). Hurricane Katrina was the costliest storm in U.S. history, at an estimated $105 billion. The 2005 season experienced the greatest damage total in 1 yr. (year), estimated at $150 billion.

Communications and Katrina

Forecasting by the NHC, a branch of NWS, regarding the trajectory of Hurricane Katrina and the need for residents and governments in its path to take the storm very seriously has generally been judged to have been very good. Southern Florida NWS public forecast statements related to what was to become Hurricane Katrina were issued beginning on Tuesday, August 23. Although lead times for Florida watches and warnings were less than desired, the storm was still relatively weak when it made landfall there. Broad areas of watches and warnings were issued for the Gulf Coast well ahead of landfall, with very accurate storm surge predictions about a day in advance. Statements and interviews from NHC were widely carried by the media; media outlets such as the Weather Channel, the Internet, national television networks, and local news sources gave the storm significant coverage as it approached land.

Future Forecast

Research has established a “total dissipation index” to rate the potential destructiveness of tropical cyclones over their lifetime. The MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) scientist Kerry Emanuel defined an “index of potential destructiveness” and found that the intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes had increased markedly since the 1970s. Storms have been lasting longer, with increased intensity. Emanuel determined strong correlations between tropical sea surface temperatures and the doubling of power of storms.

Another research team, headed by Carlos Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, completed work in 2006 and found that the increasing numbers of Categories 4 and 5 hurricanes since 1970 were directly linked to increasing sea surface ...