PROBABILITY AND STAISTICS

Assignment involves the use of probability and staistics to analyze and arrive at a hypothetical business decision.

Assignment involves the use of probability and staistics to analyze and arrive at a hypothetical business decision

Business decision, statwistics and probability

In competitive environment, business managers must design quality into products, and into the processes of making the products. They must facilitate a process of never-ending improvement at all stages of manufacturing and service. This is a strategy that employs statistical methods, particularly statistically designed experiments, and produces processes that provide high yield and products that seldom fail. Moreover, it facilitates development of robust products that are insensitive to changes in the environment and internal component variation. Carefully planned statistical studies remove hindrances to high quality and productivity at every stage of production. This saves time and money. It is well recognized that quality must be engineered into products as early as possible in the design process. One must know how to use carefully planned, cost-effective statistical experiments to improve, optimize and make robust products and processes. (Desrosières, Alain 2004)

Business Statistics is a science assisting you to make business decisions under uncertainties based on some numerical and measurable scales. Decision making processes must be based on data, not on personal opinion nor on belief. The Devil is in the Deviations: Variation is inevitable in life! Every process, every measurement, every sample has variation. Managers need to understand variation for two key reasons. First, so that they can lead others to apply statistical thinking in day-to-day activities and secondly, to apply the concept for the purpose of continuous improvement. This course will provide you with hands-on experience to promote the use of statistical thinking and techniques to apply them to make educated decisions, whenever you encounter variation in business data. You will learn techniques to intelligently assess and manage the risks inherent in decision-making. Therefore, remember that:

Just like weather, if you cannot control something, you should learn how to measure and analyze it, in order to predict it, effectively. If you have taken statistics before, and have a feeling of inability to grasp concepts, it may be largely due to your former non-statistician instructors teaching statistics. Their deficiencies lead students to develop phobias for the sweet science of statistics. In this respect, (Desrosières, Alain 2004) made the following remark:

"Since everybody in the world thinks he can teach statistics even though he does not know any, I shall put myself in the position of teaching biology even though I do not know any"

Inadequate statistical teaching during university education leads even after graduation, to one or a combination of the following scenarios: (Desrosières, Alain 2004)

1. In general, people do not like statistics and therefore they try to avoid it.

2. There is a pressure to produce scientific papers, however often confronted with"I need something quick."

3. At many institutes in the world, there are only a few (mostly 1) statisticians, if any at all. This means that these people are extremely ...