TEXANS IN THE GENERAL ELECTION OF NOVEMBER 2010

Texans in the General Election of November 2010



Texans in the General Election of November 2010

The year 2010 will be an exciting and interesting year for politics in America, and Texas will be home to much of the action. National pundits have identified the Texas governor's race as perhaps the most important and interesting race to watch in the entire country, and have identified the election results in the Texas Legislature as critical in determining the national results of the 2010 redistricting process.

As for the 2010 elections, however, most observers believe that the state is still reliably Republican, and they predict few gains for Democrats - especially with President Obama not on the ballot to drive Democratic turnout, and with national political momentum seemingly favoring Republicans, especially in the South. But look for Democrats to make a big push to win at least one statewide office in Texas, and perhaps even push to take back the Texas House of Representatives, in order to finally begin breaking up the current Republican hegemony(Cloonan, 1998, 7).

Recent polling suggests that Texas political campaigns in 2010 will likely be dominated mostly by national issues (such as the economy/unemployment, health care, federal spending, illegal immigration, etc.) and Texas voters' general mood on President Obama and Washington, D.C., rather than by any Texas-specific issues. Interestingly, Texans are much more optimistic about their own state than about the United States: 59% of Texans believe that the country is “on the wrong track,” while only 39% of Texans believe that Texas as a state is “on the wrong track”.

The Governor's Mansion is the biggest prize available in the November 2010 Texas elections. The incumbent is Republican Governor Rick Perry, who as Lt. Governor rose to the governorship when George W. Bush was elected President. Perry has been reelected twice since then, and at ten years is the longest-serving governor in Texas history. (Texas has no term limits, even for Governor.) Perry is being challenged for the Republican nomination by sitting U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison(Ogorzalek, 2004, 25).

As a result, the Governor's Mansion will likely be won in the March 2010 Republican primary between Perry and Hutchison. If so, a very small and very conservative Republican primary electorate will be choosing the governor for the entire state. Although Texas is a state of nearly 24 million people, with over 13 million registered voters, 2010 is not a presidential election year so only 650,000 Texans are expected to vote in the 2010 Republican primary. And these 650,000 Republican voters will be largely from the conservative wing of the party. For example, 1/3 of Republican primary voters attend church at least twice a week.

The “Rick vs. Kay” Republican primary promises to be a bruising, intra-family battle royale, pitting two of the state's most talented politicians. Perry has served a total of 25 years in Texas politics, and has never lost an election. Hutchison is widely considered the most popular politician in Texas, has been a ...