Theory of Decision Making

Abstract

This research paper discussed about the theories of decision making with respect to causal decision making and evidential decision making which describes the theory and the process of decision making in the paper.

Table of Content

Abstract2

Introduction5

Discussion5

The Theory of Decision5

Decision-Making Process6

Identify and Analyze the Problem6

Identify the Decision Criteria and Weigh6

Define the Priority to Address the Problem7

Generate Solution Options7

Evaluate the Options7

Complex Decisions8

Causal Decision Theory8

The Paradox Of Newcomb9

Evidential Based Decision Making11

Decision Analysis12

Conclusion14

References16

Theory of Decision Making

Introduction

Decision making is the process by which a choice is made ??between options or ways to solve different situations of life in different contexts for example at work, family, sentimental business (Van, 2004).

Discussion

To make a decision, whatever its nature, it is necessary to know, understand, and analyze a problem, in order to solve it. In some cases, be as simple and every day, this is done implicitly and solved very quickly, but there are other cases in which the consequences of a bad or good choice may have impact on the lives and in a work context in the success or failure of the organization, for which it is required a more structured process that can provide more security and information to solve the problem. The decisions affect us all and thanks to them we have a critical opinion.

The Theory of Decision

Decision making is a process in which the person must choose between two or more alternatives (Sarasvathy, 2002). Each and every one of us spent the days and hours of our lives with the decisions taken. Some important decisions in relation to the development of our lives, while others are attracted. For administrators, the decision process is probably one of the greatest tasks (Russo, 2001). The decision theory is a type of analysis applicable to various fields such as sociology, economics, sciences in general (especially in the scientific method) and of course, philosophy. However, in this last the theory the decision is not just something applicable to the discipline, but is also subject to analysis and review. As first definition should be noted that decision theory has intended to analyze a given situation so that its result is the most rational action. The problem it casts is that there is some ambiguity in the term "rational." This is why there are definitions that include aspects pragmatic theory such as Bayes' principle, according that the best decision (Plous, 1993).

Decision-Making Process

The separation of process steps can be as brief or as extensive as desired, but we can identify the following main stages:

Identify and Analyze the Problem

This stage is to understand the condition of time to visualize the desired condition, ie find the problem and recognize that they must make a decision to reach a solution to this. The problem may be present because there is a gap between the present conditions and desired real or potential, because the gap is estimated to exist in the future (Gregory, 2006). In identifying the problem, we must have a clear vision and objective, and be clear about the term otherness, ...