ARAB SPRING

Arab Spring



Arab Spring

Introduction

On December 17, 2010, in the provincial Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid, a 26-year-old street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire to protest his humiliation at the hands of corrupt local police, succumbing to his self-inflicted injuries January 4, 2011. Within weeks his act led to the end of the 23-year rule of Tunisian president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. A wave of protests, uprisings, and insurrections commonly grouped under the term "Arab Spring" subsequently spread through much of the Arab world. As we move further away from those initial events, we can look beyond the precipitating causes and consider the forces underlying the revolutions.

This paper explores the theoretical logic and quantitative evidence linking human capability expansion to political mobilization. At least since the storming of the Bastille in 1789, debate has raged over the socioeconomic antecedents of revolution. The more widely acknowledged framework is the Malthusian "let them eat cake" model, in which widespread deprivation drives revolution. The bourgeois model, first articulated by Condorcet and elaborated by Marx, Habermas, and others, argues instead that improved living standards allow populations, particularly emerging middle classes, to engage in political change activities, whether revolutionary or otherwise.

Discussion and Analysis

Informational warfare launched by the West in the Muslim world could not but result in the Arab youth betraying their traditional values and taking to the streets to express their protest. It is absolutely evident that these protests were orchestrated from overseas. This became particularly clear in the final stage of the armed confrontation in Libya.

Imposing pro-democratic values in countries with hard-line regimes could not but bring them into a historical deadlock. The waves of unrest started taking unusual shapes… The Arab Spring gave the world three successful anti-government coups - in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, and three influential anti-government movements - in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain. In the last three countries things have not yet been settled. It seems that Yemenis are seeking for the Libyan scenario, while the Yemeni government sent troops to Sanaa to suppress the protests.

Since the Libyan population consists of tribes, the ousted Colonel has enough supporters. The recent events show that Algeria- since it has not recognized the National Transitional Council - is ready to support Gaddafi. This all means that new outbreaks of civil war are highly likely.

“Some people draw a parallel between the post-Gaddafi Libya with Iraq after Hussein was toppled.- Bashir al-Bakr writes in the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar.- Iraq is in the grip of the never-ending civil war. Americans underestimated Hussein`s authority in the country. After the US invasion of Iraq tensions grew even deeper there. The same is going to happen in Libya. They have already made too many mistakes to be able to find a painless solution to the ongoing crisis”.

Meanwhile, Al-Qaida is gaining strength in southern Yemen. A day will come when Al-Qaida militants will enter Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Libya. Some of them are already ...