Demographic Transition And Its Phases In The Developing Countries

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Demographic Transition and Its Phases in the Developing Countries

Demographic Transition and Its Phases


The population and the patterns in population of any region represent and reflect many important aspects regarding the societies in these regions. In fact, the statistics and figures of population of any region can help to describe the social values, cultural heritage and economic stabilities or instabilities of the inhabitants of that region. The Demographic Transition Theory is, therefore, very important in this regard.


The demographic transition theory, in demography, was proposed in the decade of 1940s in order to provide an explanation and description of the main lines of American and European history of population.


Demographic transition or DT can be defined as the description of conversion of high birth rate and high death rate to low birth rate and low death rates, while a country evolves from a pre-industrial phase to a stable industrialized economic system. The scenario is usually demonstrated with the help of a model of demographic transition (Chesnais, 1992).

Four phases of Demographic Transition with Respect to Population

The transition model proposed by the Demographic Transition theory is classified into four stages or phases. These include,

Phase One

This is a phase with a stable population. This is simply because the high birth rate in this phase is counter balance by the high death rate.

Phase Two

This is the phase when the birth rate continues to increase however the death rate begins to fall. Hence, the overall population in this phase expands resulting in high population growth (Chesnais, 1992).

Phase Three

This is the phase when the birth rate begins to fall while the death rate remains low. However, it is important to note that the population will still continue to rise because of the fact that the death rate is still lower than the birth rate of the population. Many demographers have pointed out that the death rates have started to fall significantly since the 1800's. Hence, they believe that the overall earth's population has entered this phase now.

Phase Four

This is the phase with little fluctuation as a result of a low birth and death rate. Hence, these factors nullify each other however the overall population remains high nevertheless. Demographers believe that this is the most applicable model that we might experience from 2050 onwards.

Contributing Factors towards Decline in CBR and CDR in the Epidemiologic and Fertility

There are a number of ...