Correlation between Crime Rates and Concealed Carry Permits in the United States

Introduction

A number of studies have demonstrated that the recent increase in the crime rate of the U.S. can be partially explained by the increase in the proportion of young people in the population. The President's Commission 22 reported that changes in age structure of the population had an important effect in the increase (49%) shown in the official statistics for the 1960-65 period. Sagi and Wellford indicated that 30-50% of the increment in the recorded crime over the years of 1958-64 can be attributed to the changing age structure in the U.S. population. Ferdinand in his study of demographic shifts and criminality, argued that incidences of certain crimes (e.g., property and sex crimes for the young) have been more affected by recent changes in the age structure than others. Overall, 12% of the increase in the volume of index offences can be accounted for by shifts in age composition. Chilton and Spielberger11 studied delinquency and estimated that over 70% of the increase in recorded delinquency was accounted for by the increase in the high risk age population. Wellford, using the data over the period 1958-69, reported that 45% of the increase in crime was a consequence of changes in age composition. He also noted that the increase in age-specific violent crime rates has occurred in the young age group (under 21). Markides and Tracy in their discussion of the stationary population stated that the age structure of a stationary population can decrease the crime rates of the 1970 population by at least 10%. Another important trait differentiating criminals from non-criminals is sex: Males have consistently higher arrest and conviction rates than females. However, the disparity between the sexes varies with time and place. A comparison by Giffen using 1950 and 1966 data on convictions for indictable offences in Canada revealed that the increase in female crime rates is by far higher than that of their male counterparts. He also found differences in conviction pattern by age groups. Hartnagel17 in his study of 1968 provincial rates noted that the age and sex composition of the provincial population does affect conviction rates although the effect is relatively slight. (Giffen, 12-19)

Discussion

In recent years, the debate over gull policy has been dominated by two federal initiatives: the Brady bill's waiting period for the purchase of handguns and tile ban on so-called assault weapons. While these federal issues have riveted tile nation's attention, however, a quiet revolution in gun policy has spread throughout the states. Ten years ago, only a half-dozen states routinely issued permits for trained citizens to carry concealed handguns for personal protection. Most states gave police departments wide latitude to issue such permits, which were rarely given to persons other than retired police officers and people with political connections. Today, however, 30 states comprising half the nation's population grant concealed-carry permits to law-abiding citizens. In the long run, this movement will be far more significant than either the Brady waiting period (which ...