The Iran Contra-Affair

Introduction

The news of the Iran-Contra affair that broke in early November 1986 provides an extraordinary opportunity to reexamine the public opinion phenomenon generally known as "rally 'round the flag." Despite the presence of conventionally assumed necessary and sufficient conditions, there was no rally of public opinion. The polls following the initial revelations in the Iran-Contra affair record 15 to 21 percentage-point declines in the president's level of approval. Since the Iran-Contra affair fits all the criteria of a rally event but produced no rally, it can be added to the brief list of cases in which the absence of a rally has given rise to reservations about the patriotism hypothesis as an account of the source of rallies in public support for the president (Brody, 1986b; Brody and Shapiro, 1989). In this article, two alternative hypotheses are provided: priming and opinion leadership. It is argued that the opinion leadership hypothesis provides the best explanation for the Iran-Contra negative rally.

A sketch of the Iran-Contra affair

In 1984 Congress passed the Boland Amendment cutting off funds for the Contras' military and paramilitary operations. However, while President Ronald Reagan signed the bill into law on 12 October 1984, he ordered his staff, in the words of his national security adviser, to find a way to keep the Contras' 'body and soul together'.'4 Subsequently, Lieutenant-Colonel Oliver North, Assistant Deputy-Director for Political-Military Affairs at the NSC, organised and oversaw a secret operation to supply military equipment and monetary assistance to the Contras. The operation, known as the Enterprise, had its own aircraft, pilots, airfield, operatives, ship, secure communication devices, and secret Swiss bank accounts. Funds were solicited from foreign governments, private individuals, conservative organisations, and by General John Singlaub (chairman of both the World Anti-Communist League (WACL) and its US affiliate, the US Council for World Freedom), and from WACL chapters around the world. For sixteen months, the Enterprise functioned as a secret arm of the NSC staff, acting without accountability to any official agency or institution, and running a fully-fledged covert Contra aid-programme. Two assistants to the President for National Security Affairs, Robert McFarlane and John Poindexter, as well as the CIA director, William Casey, were also deeply involved in the operation.'

In the summer of 1985, the Israeli government requested permission from Washington to sell missiles to Iran. The President authorised Israel to proceed with the sales although they would violate the Arms Export Control Act as well as a US arms embargo imposed after Iran's taking of American hostages at the US Embassy.'6 (Why Israel sought presidential approval for its arms sales to Iran at that time is puzzling since Israel's weapon sales had continued from the beginning of the revolution-even while the Americans were being held hostage in Teheran.) Subsequent to the President's authorisation, Israel shipped several batches of weapons to Iran including TOW anti-tank missiles and HAWK anti-aircraft missiles. One transaction, in November 1985, involved a US$1 million advance from Israel to the Enterprise.

When the exchange was complete, the Enterprise ...